Years ago I read in Economist Magazine that the USA will lose the rank of #1 economy by 2020.

China will surpass the States.

That would give the American Empire about 120 years of supremacy.

It seems inevitable. In 1945 the Yanks produced 50% of global GDP. Today it’s about 20%.

Students of Economics will spend years studying why. Why did the nation that invented Wal-Mart, Hollywood movies, Microsoft, Apple, and Google fall into decline?

You could argue it’s simply economic globalization. But my guess is that public debt will be determined historically to be the main factor.

The USA has two main political parties, neither with the guts to cut spending, nor raise taxes. By the time one does, it will be too late.

I hope the States will decline gracefully, as did Great Britain. But I doubt it. Some idiot like President Palin will declare war on China, or some similar debacle in order to rally the nation.

Certainly a world with China, India, Russia, Canada, Brazil and South Africa stronger, the USA weaker, will be a less stable planet.

On the bright side, Chinese tourists will flock to the USA. Buying souvenirs MADE IN THE USA.

… Imperial greatness reaches an apogee and then follows a downhill trajectory.

We had it good once, but now we cling to old dreams—like Rome, we prop them up with Edward Gibbon’s artificial supports—instead of confronting unpleasant realities.

The old vitality is gone. In the United States we carry out studies explaining why the cost of nuclear power is prohibitive. The Chinese build nuclear power plants. …

Dave Cohen – The Decline of the American Empire (2009)