Calgary in recession

Until this past week I’ve been predicting the economy in Calgary would bottom out and start an upswing by Summer 2009.

After all, how long can the world delay purchasing Oil and Gas?

Looks like I’m wrong:

… it’s official: we’re not going to escape the global recession. Nor, for that matter, are we going to get off easier than a lot of other cities, as so many forecasters intimated back in October and November of 2008.

As the CED revealed this week, 2009 is looking mighty iffy, economically speaking. And we’ll be well into 2010 before things start looking up–which is more or less what a few of us have been saying for some time.

“It is likely going to get worse before it gets better,” says the CED report, authored by Legge. “The ride shall be rough during this downturn. We should all be prepared for that, and expect that it will be here for at least another 12 months.” …

calgary-tower

… And this week, Conoco offered up a pointed reminder of just where we are at, economically speaking, when it handed out pink slips to 190 employees.

… And, of course, there is the wild card of energy pricing. Where oil prices will go, literally nobody knows–although many forecasters are calling for $55 oil through this year and $65 oil in 2010. …

The Calgary Herald – Calgary financial truth hurts

I only have 2 Calgary friends laid off, so far.

Apple could dominate micropayments

How many years have I been waiting for micropayments to become the norm on the internet? The buying and selling of product in fractions of a penny.

It looked like PayPal would be the future … at one time.

But PayPal was purchased by Ebay. And never fulfilled the potential I envisioned. Many don’t like PayPal. Ebay does not know how to build the company.

People do like buying from the Apple iTunes store.
It’s insanely easy and convenient to one click a $.99 purchase of a music track.

What if Apple extended their payment system to third party companies?

If I could buy a product on the internet, relaying the transaction via the iTunes store.

Speculates Narendra Rocherolle:

iphone-cost-money

… Apple is in the catbird seat to dominate micropayments. Their “batch and bill” implementation in iTunes, which boasts perhaps the smoothest online purchasing UI ever, now serves as a foundation for the App Store …

I would be spending a lot more if Apple extended the API to allow for the ability to transact within apps. It would give real viability to virtual gifts, currencies and goods across the myriad of apps out there by allowing pennies and dollars to change hands in a frictionless way. As both a developer and a consumer, that is exciting. …

GigaOm – Apple’s iPhone Offers the Ideal Micropayments Platform

death of the Rocky Mountain News

From an insider in Salon …

“We had a beautiful thing here,” our editor, John Temple, told us as we huddled around the news desk on Thursday, 230 writers, editors and photographers about to be jobless in the worst economy since the Great Depression. …

story

The death throes of my newspaper

They simply did not have enough revenue to pay 230 employees.

Are that many people needed to put out a daily newspaper?

Could it be done with 130 employees?

If not, most newspapers are finished. Only MAJOR cities will be able to support even one paper.

NY Times on Twitter

The other day I posted a video explaining Twitter, the newest internet phenomenon.

This video tutorial is better. David Pogue on the NY Times website.

I believe the NY Times will survive. They have been innovators exploring ways to keep and grow their marketshare of readers. This video is a good example of how to do that.

The Rocky Mountain News, one of Denver’s major newspapers, declared bankruptcy last Friday. That’s the largest paper to go down in the USA, so far.

The “old” model of the newspaper business cannot survive, depression or no depression. It’s simply too expensive compared with online competition.

=== bonus

David Pogue on the Amazon Kindle.

is the USA screwed?

Sure looks like it to me.

Projected Budget Deficit (so far)

budgetdeficit14-640

source – Perot Charts

What a shame that Obama arrived at this precise moment.

He’s committed to the bail-outs. Those will sink the ship, I expect. And not work.

How long before the majority of Americans come to realize the bailouts were a mistake? And Obama’s popularity drops through the floor?

Why should all Americans subsidize those who “who bought a house that cost more than they could afford, hoping for a spike in value so they could sell at a profit or take out a new loan based on an increased value.”

That from a good article in the NY Times – I Bought an Expensive House. My Bad, Not Yours

looking for an optimistic economist

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is a Geneva-based non-profit foundation best known for its Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland which brings together top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world including health and the environment.

Funny article by journalist Daniel Gross in Slate – Searching for an Optimist at Davos:

… Armed with a notebook, Blackberry, flip camera, and laptop, I mounted a 72-hour effort to locate an optimistic CEO. …

… many CEOs bore the harrowed looks of survivors of the Donner Party. Once they trickled in, many having endured the indignity of flying commercial for the first time in years, they were treated to an avalanche of doomsaying. Alarmists, from hedge-fund manager George Soros to historian Niall Ferguson, spun elaborate tales of catastrophe. Ferguson boldly concluded that the United States was destined for a decade of extremely lame growth. Economists were universally downbeat, which isn’t totally surprising. (They don’t call economics the dismal science for nothing.) Those who had successfully predicted the debacle, like Nouriel Roubini, New York University’s Dr. Doom, were elevated to prime speaking slots. …

read the rest of the article in Slate

I’ve been unaffected, personally, by the recession, as yet.

Perhaps that’s why I have a feeling some parts of the world, including Alberta, will bounce back much more quickly than expected. Perhaps even mid-2009.

No doubt I will be asked to speak in Davos next year.

job-cutting
Swinging the axe – Job-cutting has begun in earnest. But will the axe be wielded wisely? – Economist

Circuit City bankrupt

Too bad.

One less big box electronics store.

circuit-city-bankrupt

It’s a sad day for electronics shoppers: Circuit City, the second-largest retailer of consumer electronics, has announced it is forced to close all its remaining 567 U.S. stores and sell all its merchandise. The closing also leaves 34,000 Circuit City employees out of a job. …

PC World

Wikipedia – Circuit City

Best Buy, the biggest dog in the industry, is still strong.

Note: The Source by Circuit City in Canada is untouched. All 765 stores are open for business. The Canadian economy is much healthier than the American.

Canadian Banks solid?

I’ve complained much about Canadian banks in the past.

Perhaps too much

fact12_1big

LONDON (Reuters) – The global financial crisis could have been avoided if every country had had a banking system like Canada’s, the governor of the Bank of Canada said on Saturday.

Asked in a BBC interview if the world could have been spared the crisis if everyone had had a banking system “as sober and sensible” as Canada’s, Mark Carney said: “Yes, I think, is the short answer.”

“What we did was that we had an absolute restriction on how much leverage, how much borrowing our banks could do,” he said.

“They didn’t like that and they would come in and complain about it regularly because it was stopping them from doing some of the sexier things that their international competitors were doing. But it turns out some of the sexier things that they were doing were quite foolish,” he told the BBC World Service.

Canada has the soundest banking system in the world, according to the World Economic Forum.

Canada avoided banking pitfalls, central bank gov. says

Leave a comment if you disagree.