Surprising.
But obvious, once you see the history laid out by Richard Sears from MIT.
Click PLAY or watch it on TED.
UPDATE: Check the comment from Peter.
Category: economics
Decline of the American Empire
Years ago I read in Economist Magazine that the USA will lose the rank of #1 economy by 2020.
China will surpass the States.
That would give the American Empire about 120 years of supremacy.
It seems inevitable. In 1945 the Yanks produced 50% of global GDP. Today it’s about 20%.
Students of Economics will spend years studying why. Why did the nation that invented Wal-Mart, Hollywood movies, Microsoft, Apple, and Google fall into decline?
You could argue it’s simply economic globalization. But my guess is that public debt will be determined historically to be the main factor.
The USA has two main political parties, neither with the guts to cut spending, nor raise taxes. By the time one does, it will be too late.
I hope the States will decline gracefully, as did Great Britain. But I doubt it. Some idiot like President Palin will declare war on China, or some similar debacle in order to rally the nation.
Certainly a world with China, India, Russia, Canada, Brazil and South Africa stronger, the USA weaker, will be a less stable planet.
On the bright side, Chinese tourists will flock to the USA. Buying souvenirs MADE IN THE USA.
… Imperial greatness reaches an apogee and then follows a downhill trajectory.
We had it good once, but now we cling to old dreams—like Rome, we prop them up with Edward Gibbon’s artificial supports—instead of confronting unpleasant realities.
The old vitality is gone. In the United States we carry out studies explaining why the cost of nuclear power is prohibitive. The Chinese build nuclear power plants. …
Dave Cohen – The Decline of the American Empire (2009)
should Canada separate from Quebec?
The two times Quebec voted on separation from Canada, I had mixed feelings.
I could see the logic. And pondered whether, ultimately, both Quebec and R.O.C. (Rest Of Canada) might be better off.
Neither vote passed.
Today Quebec manages to convince the rest of Canada that they are a “have not” Province. That Québécois should be subsided by the rich Provinces.
How is that?
The Québécois friends in my industry are better off than Albertans, and have always been better off.
Here’s a brilliant article, I think, on the issue of Equalization payments.
As you’ve likely heard, Greece is “too big to fail”. The rest of the EU has decided to bail them out.
In Greece, citizens, on average, retire at the age of 58.
In Germany, the citizens expected to help bail out the bankrupt Greeks, work on average until until the age of 65. Naturally, German citizens are wondering how this can be considered fair. Why should they work seven years longer on average so Greek citizens can live a life of leisure and be less productive?
What’s more, in Germany, most working people pay taxes. In Greece, only 20 per cent pay taxes. Again, unfair. And yet equalization between “have” European Union states and “have not” European Union states continues, even though it’s not making things equal — it’s rewarding laziness, leisure and possibly even criminal tax evasion. Why pay taxes if some hard-working Germans will do it for you? Thus the riots in Greece. They believe they are entitled to those entitlements.
Dysfunctional? You bet. We Canadians would never stand for such a thing. Right? Think again.
Equalization in Canada was established to ensure that “have-not” regions could enjoy the same programs as “have” regions and most Canadians wouldn’t quibble with that. But that has not happened. In fact, the reverse has occurred. The have provinces have fewer services than the have-nots.
According to a Dec. 2009 report by the Institute of Statistics of Quebec, Quebecers average age of retirement is 62 whereas in the rest of Canada it is almost 65. While the Quebec Pension Plan and Canada Pension Plans are identical and carry the same penalties for collecting your pension earlier than 65, those who stop working earlier are less productive and contribute less to Canadian society in terms of income and taxes.
In light of the fact that Quebec received $8.6 billion in equalization payments in 2010-11 out of a total equalization pot of $14.4 billion, it’s safe to say that citizens in Canada’s “have” provinces — British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario — are paying for Quebecers’ early retirement, as theirs is the only province which has such a generous, early retirement benefit.
In other words, equalization is not very equal. …
Calgary Herald – Corbella: It’s all Greek to Quebec
Licia Corbella has worked for daily newspapers for more than 20 years and is currently the Calgary Herald’s Editorial Page Editor. …
What’s the solution?
Cancel equalization payments, Canada. Or separate from Quebec.
related – Equalization payments in Canada
sustainable Health Care?
Initially keen on following the American Health Care reform process, … I eventually lost interest.
Once the bill was signed I waited on two sources to dissect the result:
• Slate Political Gabfest audiocast
• Economist magazine audiocast
On Slate, the post-mortem by John Dickerson, David Plotz, and William Saletan was terrible, their worst broadcast yet.
Economist was good, perhaps the best summary I’ve heard to date.
Over half of Economist analysts feel that having the bill passed is slightly better than it not having passed. It’s a “marginal improvement“.
The complaint of Economist magazine is that the biggest problem was not addressed in the bill, the ludicrous cost of Health Care in the U.S.A. … It’s more expensive than anywhere else in the world, with no evidence that the service is any better.
… In spite of the amount spent on health care in the U.S., according to a 2008 Commonwealth Fund report, the United States ranks last in the quality of health care among developed countries.
The World Health Organization (WHO), in 2000, ranked the US health care system 37th in overall performance and 72nd by overall level of health (among 191 member nations included in the study). International comparisons that could lead to conclusions about the quality of the health care received by Americans are subject to debate. The US pays twice as much yet lags other wealthy nations in such measures as infant mortality and life expectancy, which are among the most widely collected, hence useful, international comparative statistics. …
What America has gained with the bill passing, perhaps they’ve lost in making the nation even more divided than ever between Democrat and Republican. Recent polls still show over half of Americans against the Obama bill.
I highly doubt the Republicans will ever repeal what’s been gained, but they should if they believe even 20% of what they’ve been saying to the media. (I made a special trip to bypass Searchlight, Nevada the other day.)
What should the Americans have done?
Here’s the Rick McPlan:
1) All citizens must have Health insurance. Failure to do so results in an escalating series of warnings, fines and stints in a “work camp”.
2) All insurance companies must offer to insure any citizen. None can be declined for any reason. Any insurance company not wanting to do business in the nation, we show the door.
3) Private companies can offer any Health Care product … under license.
4) Phase out government health care services over 20 years, or so.
… Let the free market sort it out. But with a good safety net for anyone and everyone willing to pay for insurance.
Obviously a percentage of the population are too incompetent or stupid to ever get themselves insured. They’ll be cleaning highways and removing graffiti for the rest of their lives. (That’s the biggest downside to my scheme, so far as I can see.)
Switzerland is the nation, so far as I’ve heard, most closely using this kind of simplified scheme. (It’s the second most expensive in the world, though.)
Should the Americans simply have adopted the Canadian model? … HA!
God no. Ours is totally unsustainable over the long term.
simplifying legal jargon
Alan Siegel is my hero.
Tax forms, credit agreements, healthcare legislation: They’re crammed with gobbledygook, says Alan Siegel, and incomprehensibly long. He calls for a simple, sensible redesign — and plain English — to make legal paperwork intelligible to the rest of us.
Harper “pouring money down a rat hole”
So says Craig Jones, executive director of the John Howard Society regarding the Canadian prison system.
Why is the Harper government taking millions more dollars out of our pockets in times of massive deficit?
… expenditures for the coming fiscal year will increase 43 per cent, to $329.4 million in 2010-2011, from $230.8 million in 2009-2010 …
If the Americans have taught us anything, it’s that longer prison sentences don’t work in reducing crime.
The best moment in the movie Sicko was the scene showing that the vile terrorists get better Health Care in Guantanamo Bay than survivors of the American families victimized. The health personnel-to-detainee ratio is 1 to 4 there.
Perhaps Harper should look more closely at the Mexican prison system. In Mexico prisoners are expected to pay for their own cost of incarceration. Work camps are a far better deterrent than free dental.
prp
are you a slave to your STUFF?
The Steadfast Finances blogger is:
… the graphic below represents how my personal finances looked using what I call the “How your stuff owns you calendar?” method when I was fresh out of grad school, making ~$60,000 a year, and leveraged up to my eyeballs. …
Visualizing How the Things You Own, End Up Owning You
Me? … I’m a slave to my new-to-me car.
related post – Voluntary Simplicity
Stop Getting Ripped Off
Why Consumers Get Screwed, and How You Can Always Get a Fair Deal
I heard an interview with the author Bob Sullivan who has good advice for us. Especially regarding our mobile phones, banks, credit cards, insurance and vehicles.
… evade the financial traps big businesses set for unwary consumers—and shows you how to get the best possible deals every single time.
Today’s marketplace is full of hidden fees, fine print, and other booby traps designed to trip you up and take your money. You may be losing big even when you think you’re getting a steal! But with Sullivan’s keen guidance and sensible advice, you can save money and regain control of your financial life.
Clearly and concisely, Sullivan reveals
• why American consumers make such easy targets for corporate America (you’ll be stunned, for example, at how poor our math skills are)
• how Wall Street will skim off one third of your retirement money (avoid this trap with Sullivan’s new “Pitfall-Proof Pyramid”)
• the myths behind credit-card reward programs and “the 21st-Century Bank Account”
• the real numbers to focus on when buying a new car
• why you should spend more time shopping for your mortgage than your home
• the key questions you must ask before buying life insurance
• the secrets to saving for college and paying off student loans the right way
• the best deals on cell phones and pay-TV service
Stop Getting Ripped Off – Amazon
eye disease cured around the world
When I first travelled in India years ago, conspicuous were the number of eye diseases, most easily preventable.
This is one of the most inspirational videos I’ve ever seen. It makes me optimistic about the future of humanity.
India’s revolutionary Aravind Eye Care System has given sight to millions. Thulasiraj Ravilla looks at the ingenious approach that drives its treatment costs down and quality up, and why its methods should trigger a re-think of all human services.
walking away from your home mortgage
I once walked away from a 1 week time share Condo I owned in Mexico. I walked when my annual maintenance fee reached US$400 … the same value as a rented Condo at that time.
(That fee started at $75. Condo fees are the big scam not mentioned in Condo sales pitches.)
This woman will walk away from her home mortgage. She’s “underwater“.
This is what’s known as a strategic default. She’s giving up her house as a business decision — not because she has to.
…
She isn’t alone. A recent study from Experian-Oliver Wyman found that 17 percent of the mortgage defaults in 2008 were strategic.
Banks and entrepreneurs are trying to find ways to keep underwater owners in their homes. But for many it’s the best financial option.
Rick McCharles 
