what I don’t know about economics

Dave Adlard called me on a contradiction on this blog.

On the one hand, I’m an unabashed booster of right wing economic thinking.

On the other hand, I gloated that the Canadian banks did not suffer the melt down of the American banking system.

rick-bucks

Dave’s right. (I don’t actually have a PhD in Economics.)

As the story of the collapsing economy evolved in Fall of 2008, my first realization that I was wrong about unrestricted competition in banking was when Economist magazine instantly came out in favour of bailing out the banks. They could not be allowed to fail.

What !!??

That was the first time it dawned on me that banks are not the same as other businesses that should be allowed to go out of business — newspapers and automobile companies, for example.

Guys like Ben Bernanke MUST closely regulate banks. Or banks will make stupid, risky gambles with other people’s money.

For the record, I do believe in some government regulation of the market. But the less the better.

The strength of the Canadian banks in this recession is probably LUCK more than any kind of foresight on the part of regulators.

Lucky Canada.

UPDATE: Bernanke is live on TV right now trying to explain why AIG could not be allowed to fail. On the other hand, he said it would have been preferable to have originally agreed to break up the company with the first bail-out.

A company that insures perhaps 1/3 of businesses in the USA is TOO BIG.

Of course the bonuses paid to executives is symbolic. A drop in the bucket of the public money being wasted by AIG.

impressed by Ben Bernanke

The US economy is screwed.

News gets worse and worse:

… the Congressional Budget Office’s new projection that, under the current economic rescue plan, annual deficits will force the federal government to borrow fully a third more than the administration had earlier forecast. …

Slate

One bit of good news is this guy, Ben Bernanke. I was very impressed in this 60 Minutes TV interview on YouTube.

Bernanke Fed Chairman Discusses Recession, Financial Rescues And Recovery In Wide-Ranging 60 Minutes Interview by Scott Pelley.

You might say it’s partly his fault for not regulating the banking system SOONER.

But if not Bernanke, who instead should be saving the US economy?

One guy created a viral video sensation singing about wanting Alan Greenspan’s FED Chair job. A job that George Bush gave to Ben Bernanke instead. Watch that parody based on the Police hit: Every Breath You Take on YouTube.

It might take your mind off the economy.

rent in Tokyo – only $500

Boingboing points us to this incredible video where unemployed and homeless Japanese geeks move into cubicles in an internet café, paying about $500 a month for the privilege, including, I suppose, all the internet you can use.

Almost Homeless: Living in an Internet Café

Click through to watch the BBC News video clip.

George Bush relocating to Calgary, Canada?

He loves it here. And the economy is so much better than his own country.

Sounds like he’s looking for work:

… Bush, who left office with one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in history, chose the safe haven of Calgary, perhaps second only to Houston or Dallas in terms of friendly territory, to test-drive his new speaking career.

His praise of free trade and free markets played well to a crowd of nearly 2,000 business and oil executives who paid a minimum $400 a plate to hear him speak.

“This is my maiden voyage,” a folksy Bush said of his first public speaking engagement. “I can’t think of a better place to give it than Calgary, Canada.” …

Bush’s first speech as ex-president well received in Calgary

Bush Gets Warm Reception As Protests Rage Outside

Calgary Herald

The locals welcomed him …

bushwelcomedincagif

ledaro

bailouts do not work – AIG backlash

AIG plans to pay millions in worker bonuses, a move that has angered lawmakers who have given the insurer bailout billions. Lawmakers weigh the options in dealing with AIG.

PBS News Hour

Watch the first few minutes of the video broadcast – Obama, Congress Blast AIG Plans for Employee Bonuses

Tip of the iceberg.

As soon as you hand out “free” money, the system is broken.

via <a href="http://cravensworld.wordpress.com/2008/09/18/aig-bailout/">cravens world</a>
via cravens world

Better to have let this insurance company go into bankruptcy. Only the banks should have been propped up.

Or should they?

The Canadian banks are OK.

Royal Bank, Canada’s biggest bank by assets, is now seventh-largest in North America after tripling assets in the past decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from company filings. …

Toronto-Dominion, Scotiabank and Bank of Montreal rank eight, ninth and 10th.

Canadian banks have remained profitable, outperforming their peers, because of tighter government restrictions on lending and capital requirements. The country’s six biggest lenders reported less than $20-billion in debt-related writedowns since the credit crisis began in 2007, about 2% of the US$887.1-billion recorded by banks and brokerages worldwide. …

While New York-based Citigroup Inc. lost US$17.3-billion in the fourth quarter, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co. had a net loss of US$2.55-billion and Bank of America Corp., the biggest by assets, lost US$1.79-billion, Canada’s six largest banks were profitable in the quarter ended Jan. 31, and each beat analyst estimates.

Canada’s performance has been noticed. U.S. President Barack Obama said in a February interview with Canadian Broadcasting Corp. that Canada has been “a pretty good manager of the financial system and the economy.” In October, the World Economic Forum ranked Canada as the soundest financial system.

Financial Post

saving jobs in 2009

Dana sent me an inspiring story about this guy:

Paul Levy, the guy who runs Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, was standing in Sherman Auditorium the other day, before some of the very people to whom he might soon be sending pink slips. …

paul-levy-1of2__1236859930_8122

He looked out into a sea of people and recognized faces: technicians, secretaries, administrators, therapists, nurses, the people who are the heart and soul of any hospital. People who knew that Beth Israel had hired about a quarter of its 8,000 staff over the last six years and that the chances that they could all keep their jobs and benefits in an economy in freefall ranged between slim and none.

“I want to run an idea by you that I think is important, and I’d like to get your reaction to it,” Levy began. “I’d like to do what we can to protect the lower-wage earners – the transporters, the housekeepers, the food service people. A lot of these people work really hard, and I don’t want to put an additional burden on them.

“Now, if we protect these workers, it means the rest of us will have to make a bigger sacrifice,” he continued. “It means that others will have to give up more of their salary or benefits.”

He had barely gotten the words out of his mouth when Sherman Auditorium erupted in applause. Thunderous, heartfelt, sustained applause. …

read the rest of this good news story – Boston.com – A Head with a Heart

Calgary in recession

Until this past week I’ve been predicting the economy in Calgary would bottom out and start an upswing by Summer 2009.

After all, how long can the world delay purchasing Oil and Gas?

Looks like I’m wrong:

… it’s official: we’re not going to escape the global recession. Nor, for that matter, are we going to get off easier than a lot of other cities, as so many forecasters intimated back in October and November of 2008.

As the CED revealed this week, 2009 is looking mighty iffy, economically speaking. And we’ll be well into 2010 before things start looking up–which is more or less what a few of us have been saying for some time.

“It is likely going to get worse before it gets better,” says the CED report, authored by Legge. “The ride shall be rough during this downturn. We should all be prepared for that, and expect that it will be here for at least another 12 months.” …

calgary-tower

… And this week, Conoco offered up a pointed reminder of just where we are at, economically speaking, when it handed out pink slips to 190 employees.

… And, of course, there is the wild card of energy pricing. Where oil prices will go, literally nobody knows–although many forecasters are calling for $55 oil through this year and $65 oil in 2010. …

The Calgary Herald – Calgary financial truth hurts

I only have 2 Calgary friends laid off, so far.

Apple could dominate micropayments

How many years have I been waiting for micropayments to become the norm on the internet? The buying and selling of product in fractions of a penny.

It looked like PayPal would be the future … at one time.

But PayPal was purchased by Ebay. And never fulfilled the potential I envisioned. Many don’t like PayPal. Ebay does not know how to build the company.

People do like buying from the Apple iTunes store.
It’s insanely easy and convenient to one click a $.99 purchase of a music track.

What if Apple extended their payment system to third party companies?

If I could buy a product on the internet, relaying the transaction via the iTunes store.

Speculates Narendra Rocherolle:

iphone-cost-money

… Apple is in the catbird seat to dominate micropayments. Their “batch and bill” implementation in iTunes, which boasts perhaps the smoothest online purchasing UI ever, now serves as a foundation for the App Store …

I would be spending a lot more if Apple extended the API to allow for the ability to transact within apps. It would give real viability to virtual gifts, currencies and goods across the myriad of apps out there by allowing pennies and dollars to change hands in a frictionless way. As both a developer and a consumer, that is exciting. …

GigaOm – Apple’s iPhone Offers the Ideal Micropayments Platform

death of the Rocky Mountain News

From an insider in Salon …

“We had a beautiful thing here,” our editor, John Temple, told us as we huddled around the news desk on Thursday, 230 writers, editors and photographers about to be jobless in the worst economy since the Great Depression. …

story

The death throes of my newspaper

They simply did not have enough revenue to pay 230 employees.

Are that many people needed to put out a daily newspaper?

Could it be done with 130 employees?

If not, most newspapers are finished. Only MAJOR cities will be able to support even one paper.