Obama will lose in 2012

On December 30, 2009December 29, 2009 By Rick McIn economics, government4 Comments

fat-cats — Michael Williams of Fannie Mae, top, and Charles Haldeman of Freddie Mac will each receive up to $6 million for two years.

I was a big supporter of Obama very early on in his bid to become President.

He’s still likely the very best man that’s ever held the job.

But let me go on record very early on to say he won’t win a second term.

On Dec. 24th the Democrats delivered a Christmas present:

… significant new financial support to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the beleaguered mortgage giants, no matter how badly they perform in the next few years.

The announcement came as the government approved cash compensation for the companies’ top executives of up to $42 million for their work this past year. The largest payouts will go to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac chief executives, who each will receive up to $6 million over two years, according to financial filings made Thursday. …

NY Times

I know $6 million, even $42 million is chump change. That corporate fat cat salaries is a specious issue.

But a number of talking points like this one makes Obama a sitting duck for any Republican who runs on a platform of fiscal responsibility.

The American voter has no stomach for increased taxes. That means the next President of the U.S.A. will be the Republican who runs on decreasing the Federal budget.

And how do you decrease budget spending? It’s obvious …

Whatever Republican candidate with the guts to bring American troops home soon can beat Obama. The U.S.A. can no longer afford to be policeman to the world.

That graph’s old and an oversimplification. There’s a more detailed breakdown of the 2009 budget here.

WIN the War On Drugs – legalize marijuana

On December 28, 2009December 28, 2009 By Rick McIn anti-smoking, economics, government, health & fitness2 Comments

In the 40 years since U.S. President Richard Nixon declared a “war on drugs,” the supply and use of drugs has not changed in any fundamental way. The only difference: a taxpayer bill of more than $1 trillion.

A senior Mexican official who has spent more than two decades helping fight the government’s war on drugs summed up recently what he’s learned from his long career: “This war is not winnable.” …

… Growing numbers of Mexican and U.S. officials say—at least privately—that the biggest step in hurting the business operations of Mexican cartels would be simply to legalize their main product: marijuana. Long the world’s most popular illegal drug, marijuana accounts for more than half the revenues of Mexican cartels.

“Economically, there is no argument or solution other than legalization, at least of marijuana,” said the top Mexican official matter-of-factly. The official said such a move would likely shift marijuana production entirely to places like California, where the drug can be grown more efficiently and closer to consumers. …

Wall Street Journal – Saving Mexico

California is one of 14 states that have legalized medical marijuana, anyway. It’s easy to be prescribed legal dope there.

Assembly Bill 390: The Marijuana Control, Regulation and Education Act … is the first bill ever introduced to regulate the sale and use of marijuana in the U.S. state of California. If passed and signed into law, marijuana would be sold and taxed openly to adults age 21 and older in California. …

Proponents are trying to take that to a statewide vote sometime in 2010.

I’m sure Arnold is thinking about it. An estimated $1.3 billion in revenue to the empty California tax coffers.

But the U.S.A. is one of the most conservative (backward) nations in the world. The romantic comedy “It’s Complicated” got an R rating, … “which experts say could limit the box-office potential of the Universal Pictures film — … largely from a sequence in which Steve Martin and Meryl Streep smoke marijuana.”

Producers have appealed.

This is a polarizing issue in a nation already split between Democrats and Republicans. It would be a gutsy move for Arnold to allow legislation to go ahead … if Californians vote to legalize. I think he should.

tell me again how HARD your JOB is …

On December 22, 2009December 20, 2009 By Rick McIn economicsLeave a comment

This guy has it easy compared with you.

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

Bricks are one of the biggest industries in Bangladesh. He will be paid about $1.50 for a 10hr day.

One industrialist there told me his textile plant employs 12,000 young women, 3000 young men. Females make better workers. Many have moved from their families in rural Bangladesh to relocate near the capital Dhaka.

He also told me that any man let go by his factory would end up pedalling a cycle rickshaw. $5/day earnings. Any woman would end up breaking bricks into gravel for next to nothing. Those are the lowest paying jobs in Dhaka.

When Western N.G.O.s force factories to release “child workers”, they end up on the street. Nobody returns “home” after moving to the big city.

The author of “Transforming Bangladesh into a Middle Income Economy” is optimistic about the future of his nation.

what do you know about Bangladesh?

On December 17, 2009December 17, 2009 By Rick McIn economics, government, Islam, travel, uncategorizedLeave a comment

I thought I was “worldly”, … yet I knew almost nothing about Bangladesh before going there as a volunteer this Fall.

The first thing people talk about in the capital Dhaka, is the traffic.

You might average 20km/hr. Walking is sometimes faster.

Actually, if you can get off the road, the countryside is green and lush. It’s one giant flood plain.

Bangladesh is a fast growing economy (growth 6-7%/yr), devoutly Muslim … but with few security problems. The nation is focused on economic growth, looking to bring millions out of poverty. Agriculture and clothing manufacture are the main industries.

It’s surprisingly progressive, the first Muslim-majority country to establish an all-women United Nations peacekeeping force. They have a woman Prime Minister.

Instead of blaming problems on the U.S.A. as a distraction, leaders in Bangladesh are “seeking five billion dollars of foreign investment for power and gas projects to end a chronic energy crisis”.

I think they’ll get 5-10 billion. Bangladesh is a good long term investment.

Happy Victory Day, Bangladesh!

Bangladesh celebrated Victory Day Wednesday, heralded by a 21 cannon salute that rang through the capital at dawn, while the president laid a wreath at the National Memorial in Savar to commemorate those who gave their lives for independence.

On this day in 1971, the Pakistan army surrendered to the allied forces of Bangladesh and India at Ramna Racecourse Maidan in Dhaka, ending the painful nine-month war that saw a new nation emerge.

Dhaka-parliament — National Parliament building (Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban)

more Bangladesh photos

buying a house in Phoenix

On October 17, 2009 By Rick McIn economicsLeave a comment

If you have money, time and are a bit of a gambler, … now might be a very good time to buy.

Distressed home prices in place like Phoenix and Las Vegas are around half of 2006 levels.

In addition, the Canadian dollar has risen to about par with the American. It was 76.98 cents on March 9, 2009.

YEAR News Story 20071230

If you are holding Loonies, consider shopping in the U.S.A.

… Or Bangladesh. There are good deals in both those nations right now.

battle over New York City’s worst teachers

On September 7, 2009September 1, 2009 By Rick McIn audiocasts, economicsLeave a comment

Another example of how Unions and especially government Unions have outlived their usefulness.

Many are raving about a long, detailed New Yorker story published by Steven Brill.

His story is called THE RUBBER ROOM.

… It’s a June morning, and there are fifteen people in the room, four of them fast asleep, their heads lying on a card table. Three are playing a board game. Most of the others stand around chatting. Two are arguing over one of the folding chairs. But there are no children here.

The inhabitants are all New York City schoolteachers who have been sent to what is officially called a Temporary Reassignment Center but which everyone calls the Rubber Room.

These fifteen teachers, along with about six hundred others, in six larger Rubber Rooms in the city’s five boroughs, have been accused of misconduct, such as hitting or molesting a student, or, in some cases, of incompetence, in a system that rarely calls anyone incompetent. …

read it – THE RUBBER ROOM

The Teacher’s Union is blamed by many for the waste of money and resources that is the Rubber Room.

If you no longer read, like me, you can listen to the story on NPR’s This American Life. Click PLAY Full Episode.

CORY DOCTOROW linked to a preview of a documentary being put together by one of the teachers from the Rubber Room. The other side of the story.

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

Same situation in the Los Angeles Unified School District.

what will replace newspapers?

On August 12, 2009August 1, 2009 By Rick McIn blogs, economics2 Comments

Newspapers are dying more slowly than I anticipated.

… On the other hand, my journalist friend Tom Mangan just took severance from the San Jose Mercury News. He’s moving out of California to look for a new job.

Papers funded their news rooms with revenue from classified ads?

No wonder that model is failing. That disconnect was stupid in the first place.

People should pay news reporters for news.

I’ve never had any worries about what will replace newspapers. If there is a market for news, entrepreneurs will fill that demand.

A good example is Politico:

In 2006

… John F. Harris and Jim VandeHei left The Washington Post to become Politico’s editor-in-chief and executive editor, respectively. …

Why would they leave that esteemed newspaper?

… The Politico is an American political journalism organization based in Arlington, Virginia, that distributes its content via television, the Internet, newspaper, and radio. Its coverage includes Congress, Washington lobbying, and the 2008 presidential election. It was a sponsor of the 2008 Republican Presidential Candidates debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on May 3, 2007, and the 2008 Democratic Presidential Candidates debate at the Kodak Theater on January 31, 2008. …

Oh, so they could report on politics the way they wanted. Here’s their Mission.

… A 2009 profile of the organization in Vanity Fair said Politico had an editorial staff of 75 and a total staff of 100. Its circulation is around 32,000 and as of summer 2009 its web traffic was around 6.7 million unique visitors per month. This is less than the 11 million it had during the high point of the campaign, but most political news outlets have lower traffic outside election years. As of July it was expected to have annual revenue of around $15 million, primarily from the printed product, enough for the publication not to lose money. …

A sample page:

The Huffington Post is another success story, though much different than Politico. Established only in 2005 it’s already the most linked to blog anywhere. Attracts big name celebrities, academics and policy experts as guest bloggers.

And has no problem finding new investors.

every major jet fighter sale is corrupt

On August 10, 2009August 3, 2009 By Rick McIn bad news, economics1 Comment

Reporters Joachim Dyfvermark, Sven Bergman and Fredrik Laurin won Sweden’s most prestigious journalism award ….”

A PBS Frontline documentary on that investigation is revealing. You can watch it free online. (By free, I also mean commercial free.)

BribeTN

Their documentary series, “Gripen: The Secret Deals,” which uncovered a massive network of alleged bribes, shell corporations and secret contracts around the marketing of the Gripen aircraft. Using hidden cameras, the reporters posed as business intelligence agents and were able to capture what seems to be an on-air confirmation from Jan Kavan, a prominent Czech politician and former president of the United Nations General Assembly, describing how Czech politicians across the political spectrum had accepted bribes to approve the Gripen deal. The reporters also tracked down an array of contracts signed by the then-marketing director of Saab, which detailed multimillion dollar commissions promised to agents if the deal was successful.

When it aired in 2007, the documentary caused an international outcry and prompted prosecutors in at least seven countries to open investigations into the suspected bribery. Investigations are ongoing in Sweden, the Czech Republic, Britain, South Africa, Switzerland, Austria and the United States. Last week, the international investigations yielded its first arrest. Count Alfons Mensdorff-Pouilly, a BAE lobbyist profiled in the film, was arrested in Austria for alleged money laundering and bribery in the Gripen deals. …

They point out that a Jet Fighter deal for a developing country like South Africa might happen … because the bribe to the politicians would be bigger than the bribe they can get spending the money, for example, on an AIDS program.

South Africa has already bought 24 Grippens. …

This documentary reminded me of The Airbus Affair in Canada:

… allegations of secret commissions paid to members of the Government of Canada during the term of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, in exchange for then-crown corporation Air Canada’s purchase of a large number of Airbus jets. …

After getting voted out of Office, Mulroney has admitted to accepting from Karlheinz Schreiber, a European lobbyest. Mulroney stuffed $225,000 from Schreiber, in cash, into his pockets. And then not reporting this in his income tax returns until eight years later. (When the jig was up.)

Even today, Mulroney has paid taxes on only half the money from Schreiber. Money he got in 1993-94.

Mulroney-Schreiber

Mulroney is not in jail. But, last I heard, Schreiber is.

have you seen Sicko?

On August 6, 2009August 1, 2009 By Rick McIn books, economics, government, health & fitness, movies1 Comment

I first posted about this movie May 22, 2007.

How could I have missed seeing it until now?

It’s a very important film. Especially with the Health Care debate happening in the USA.

… Sicko is a 2007 documentary … by American film maker Michael Moore. The film investigates the American health care system, focusing on its health insurance and pharmaceutical industry. The film compares the for-profit, non-universal U.S. system with the non-profit universal health care systems of Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Cuba. …

Wikipedia

You can watch it free and legal on Google Video.

It’s not a documentary. It’s Michael Moore’s one sided diatribe against the American Medical system.

But he got the bottom line right. The USA has a crappy medical system, overall. Sure if you have good coverage in the States (working for Cirque du Soleil, for example) … you are better off personally than someone working for, say, Cirque in Canada.

But something like 50 million Americans have no insurance. That is really sick!

sicko_facts_up_front

People are healthier and live longer in pretty much every other developed country, too.

The case studies in Sicko are selective, but still well worth watching. (I want to move to France from Canada after seeing those interviews!)

Under the Obama presidency, something is going to happen in the USA. But what?

It’s complicated.

The best vision I’ve heard is that of George C. Halvorson, CEO of Kaiser Permanente, the largest managed care organization in the United States. A non-profit.

… KP places a strong emphasis on preventative care, reducing costs later on. Second, its doctors are salaried rather than paid per service, which removes any incentive for doctors to perform unnecessary procedures. Thirdly, KP attempts to minimize the time patients spend in high-cost hospitals by carefully planning their stay and by providing cares in clinics. …

His most recent book: Health Care Will Not Reform Itself: A User’s Guide to Refocusing and Reforming American Health Care

Halvorson is a realist. Not a utopian like Michael Moore.

Listen to an interview with Halvorson on NPR.

In his movie Michael Moore neglected to mention that current systems in countries like Canada will soon collapse. They are not sustainable financially.

In 10 or 20 years how will the U.S. ranking compare?

That’s being decided right now.