2024’s Top Geopolitical Risks

January 2024.

Even if Trump loses the election, the USA will be further divided and destabilized through the election cycle, exactly what Xi, Putin, and the rest of American enemies want.

I’ve been trying to avoid coverage of Gaza — as it’s so depressing.

In fact, I gave up on that issue decades ago concluding that successive Israeli governments were horrible — and successive Palestinian governments even worse. My friend Mike taught school in Libya and Egypt for many years, coming away very sympathetic for innocent Palestinians.

NOW I find myself brought up to speed by listening to an excellent podcast interview with Ian Bremmer.

Search “Conversation with Ian Bremmer — 2024’s Top Geopolitical Risks

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

Not as good — but similar — is his recent TED talk.

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube. (43min)

As a happy Canadian, I didn’t suffer in any way from the G.W. Bush recession of 2008 nor Trump’s incompetent 4 years — and I MIGHT survive another 4 years of the emotional toddler as President.

But I’m worried about 2024.

As Bremmer points out, once Trump gets the GOP nomination, all Republicans will have to fall in line with that idiot — or vote for Biden.  Or NOT VOTE.

As for Russia, as Economist said at the very beginning, there’s no scenario where Russia wins their invasion of Ukraine. Even if they eventually control all of that nation, the population will be uncooperative with Putin for decades to come. The rest of the world will be leery of Putin-land for decades. Russian assets will stay frozen. And at least a million Russians who fled the nation will mostly not return.

NATO is much strengthened, as well.

When Abortion is Denied

Diana Greene Foster is a professor at the University of California, San Francisco.

She led the ten-year nationwide Turnaway Study analyzing the health and wellbeing of women who seek abortion in the United States — including those who do not receive one — and in 2020 published a book, The Turnaway Study: Ten Years, a Thousand Women, and the Consequences of Having—or Being Denied—an Abortion, on her findings.

In 2023, she was awarded a MacArthur Fellowship in recognition of her scientific work, including the book and more than 120 scientific papers. …

In 2022, she was recognized as one of the ten people who shaped science that year by Nature.

One of the most expert in the field.

Here’s a fascinating new TED Talk. Unsurprisingly, the women forced to carry a child to term have worse consequences than those who have the freedom to make the choice to abort.

Anti-choice advocates in the USA often simultaneously deny raises in minimum wage, health care for children, maternity leave, and even free school lunch. Pro birth. But not pro life.

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

The Running Grave by Robert Galbraith

Running Grave is the 7th novel in the Cormoran Strike series.

Too long. Too slow. But still worth reading as are all the books in the series aside from Ink Black Heart. Do NOT bother with Ink Black Heart. It’s gawd awful.

Running Grave mostly got good reviews.

The many I Ching epigraphs are not needed. Eventually getting annoying.

Cormoran Strike is as irritable and irritating as ever.

Well … perhaps slightly less irritating as he’s quit drinking and has lost weight, due to health concerns.

We still can’t imagine why partner Robin Ellacott likes him as a boss — or for possible romance.

I would have preferred if these two had finally got together. They don’t … quite … in this book.

But their detective agency is finally successful.

In this book they investigate the Universal Humanitarian Church (UHC) — a cult.

At one point Strike realizes it was formed on the site of a 1960s to 1980s commune, one of the places he, and his half-sister Lucy, had lived as a child, as his mother Leda Strike drifted around the country.  The commune had closed after its leaders were arrested for child sexual abuse. Lucy was one of those abused.

Robin volunteers to infiltrate the modern UHC …

It made no sense to me that she stays so long. Not much was learned from her undercover weeks.

This book could have been half as long.

The Cuckoo’s Calling(2013)Amazon.ca | Amazon.com
The Silkworm(2014)Amazon.ca | Amazon.com
Career of Evil(2015)Amazon.ca | Amazon.com
Lethal White(2018)Amazon.ca | Amazon.com
Troubled Blood(2020)Amazon.ca | Amazon.com
The Ink Black Heart 😀(2022)Amazon.ca | Amazon.com
The Running Grave(2023)Amazon.ca | Amazon.com

I’ve been listening to the Witch Trials of J.K. Rowling podcast.

Rowling tries to defend the harm she’s done by attacking people who happen to be born transgender.

I’ve read some of her written defences, as well.

Rowling believes she’s defending feminists. It started by her defending Maya Forstater, who was fired for arguing against transgender people the right to live the life opposite their birth gender.

Rowling believes that you should be allowed to say that biological sex cannot be changed, even if that turns out to be wrong. Rowling believes in freedom of speech on that issue.

Most agree that after a wonderful life, it’s a disappointment that such a wonderful writer and billionaire picked this issue as the hill to die on.

I’m disappointed in Rowling, too.

This controversy is a big part of her legacy.

That said — I’m not cancelling Rowling. She’s 95% good. 5% bad.

In some ways having such a famous person talking about the issue is bringing daylight. We have a long way to go yet in terms of making life fair for transgender citizens.

The Nine Lives of Pakistan by Declan Walsh

I’ve never been to Pakistan. But am keen to go as there is terrific hiking in the Himalaya.

I read this excellent book as research.

Sadly, in terms of progress, India has done far better since Partition .

The invasion in 1979 by the Soviet Union was a huge setback, of course.

Declan Walsh is an Irish author and journalist who is the Chief Africa Correspondent for The New York Times. 

Walsh was expelled from Pakistan in May 2013—an experience he wrote about in his 2020 book The Nine Lives of Pakistan: Dispatches from a Precarious State—but continued covering the country from London.

In fact, Walsh was ejected just prior to the 2013 Pakistani general election when Nawaz Sharif was just barely elected.

The subtitle of the book is Dispatches from a Divided Nation and the author criss-crosses those political, religious, ethnic and generational fault lines, assembling a portrait of the vast country of 220 million people through his travels and the lives of the nine compelling protagonists.

Walsh is a wonderful writer, with a gift for sketching an impression of a place, time and ambience with a few brief lines. …

What also shines through is the relish with which Walsh throws himself into the far corners of Pakistan, into crowds, celebrations and rites, with a drive born of fascination with the land and its people. …

Guardian Review

“Above all, Pakistanis are survivors. Yet a country, like a person, may only have nine lives. Rather than fate to overtake them, some of the people I met in the Insha’Allah nation took matters into their own hands…”

Book Review: The Nine Lives of Pakistan by Declan Walsh

I Voted NDP by Mail

As I was going to be out of town on Alberta election day — May 29, 2023 — I voted by mail. Early.

And It was easy to vote by mail. I could write in the candidate running in my riding, or the Party.

I was voting against the unelected premier Danielle Smith as she’s untrustworthy and a rightwing whacko. The NDP is the only alternative that MIGHT form the next government so I voted for Rachel Notley.

I joined the provincial Party, as well.

IF unelected whacko Danielle Smith manages to lose in historically conservative Alberta, she’ll certainly claim a BIG LIE as she’s a fan of Trump and DeSantis.

Of course Trump voted by mail multiple times in recent years, while simultaneously claiming mail fraud in any state he lost. 😀

Here’s my putting my ballot in the mailbox.

WHY so much poverty in the USA?

I feel the GOP USA has only one overriding goal ➙ make the rich, richer.

To that end they don’t want to improve education, health care, nor raise the minimum wage.

Greedy Americans are why there’s so much poverty in the most affluent nation of the world.

Green River, Utah

The Pulitzer Prize–winning, bestselling author of Evicted, Matthew Desmond, reimagines the debate on poverty, making a new and bracing argument about why it persists in America: because the rest of us benefit from it.

The United States, the richest country on earth, has more poverty than any other advanced democracy.

Why?

Why does this land of plenty allow one in every eight of its children to go without basic necessities, permit scores of its citizens to live and die on the streets, and authorize its corporations to pay poverty wages? …

Private opulence, public squalor: How the U.S. helps the rich and hurts the poor

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

The Last of Us – season 1

Fantastic. Original. Painful to watch, at times.

The Last of Us is the bravest TV production ever.

It should win all the awards for 2023.

The main script writer is Craig Mazin, best known for creating the HBO miniseries Chernobyl. Mazin was college roommates with Ted Cruz — whom he now despises.

Episode 3 was amazing. One of the greatest in TV in history.

Mazin watched if over 200 times — and cried every time.

I’m thinking Nick Offerman as Bill, a gay survivalist, and Murray Bartlett as Frank, the love interest, are the roles those actors will be associated with for the rest of their lives.

Murray is gay. But Nick’s wife had to talk him into doing the role. It worked.

I listened to an interview with the video editors. The goal of this TV series was to emphasize the relationship between the characters, and treat the zombie action sequences as secondary.

Bella Ramsey was a genius choice to play the critical role of Ellie. Quirky and potentially violent. Over 100 others were considered for the part. I’m sure her weirdly compelling role as 10-year-old Lyanna Mormont in Game of Thrones won her the job.

Episode 7 was partly shot at my alma matter – University of Calgary.

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

Androgynous – Miley Cyrus, Joan Jett, and Laura Jane Grace

I’ve always loved the song Androgynous (1984) by The Replacements.

Here’s one of many terrific cover versions.

The Happy Hippie Foundation, founded by Miley Cyrus, “is a nonprofit organization that rallies young people to fight injustice facing homeless youth, LGBT youth, and other vulnerable populations.”

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

Strike season 5 – Troubled Blood

Quite good. Better than I expected.

I’ve not yet cancelled J.K. Rowling though her legacy won’t be Harry Potter — it will be her weird transphobic attacks on transgender people.

I say weird because for most of her life Rowling has advanced philanthropic causes. The charity Lumos. She worked for Amnesty International documenting human rights issues.

In fact, 95% of her works have been for the greater good.

Why ruin that attacking transgender people?

Weird.

I’ve read some of Rowling’s complicated statements claiming she’s not attacking and harming trans people. Clearly she is ➙ Is J.K. Rowling transphobic? Let’s let her speak for herself.


I thought the book Troubled Blood was least good of the first five.

But the 6th book — Ink Black Heart — was dreadful. I didn’t finish it.

So … how is the TV adaptation of Troubled Blood?

Dark. But quite watchable, actually.

Strike is marginally less annoying. Robin is lovely, as always. Nobody can understand what she sees in Strike.

There is some good acting from the rest of the cast, many of them elderly.

Some touching moments.

The cold case murder mystery didn’t do much for me. Though the ending was well done.

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

Independent – Strike: Troubled Blood review – This drama should be cherished. It’s the BBC at its best

Reality TV – The Climb

I’m not a fan of reality TV — but this show is good.

10 amateur climbers competing for a cash prize of $100,000 and $100,000 prAna sponsorship.

Less hype, more reality than similar shows. Plenty of respect. Not much faux outrage. No phoney drama.

No psychological warfare or sabotage.

The elimination round each episode is entertaining.

If you can only watch 1 episode, watch the last ➙ .

It’s upbeat and positive. I recommend it even for those who have no interest in rock climbing.

This show is presented for the non-climber. I learned a lot.

In fact, as I hiker my tendency is to dismiss climbers — especially mountain climbers — as egomaniac masochists. They get far more media attention than hikers.

Jason Mamoa is 6 ft 4 in (1.93 m) — 250 pounds. Not really the right build. But the man loves climbing anyway. He makes celebrity appearances. And this show is Jason’s baby.

Host Chris Sharma is legend in the sport. And they brought in another legend, Meagan Martin, to assist him. Meagan’s famous for American Ninja Warrior, Pole Vault, and Climbing.

Cat Runner, one of the competitors, is small. Light is good. But short doesn’t help in climbing. Cat identifies as transgender, one reason he’s a climber — an activity where gender doesn’t matter.

I was cheering for him before finding out he was trans. I was cheering for Cat because he was shortest in a sport where it helps to have long limbs. Reach.

Cat’s from Kentucky, one of the many U.S. states where ReTrumplican politicians are proposing anti-LGBTQ and/or anti-trans legislation in an effort to prove they are more horrible human beings than their next GOP primary challenger. Intolerant A-holes all.

Cat organized the Queer Climber’s Network.

Click PLAY or watch it on YouTube.

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